In a stunning twist in the Formula 1 paddock, rumors have surfaced that Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff is advising Max Verstappen, the four-time world champion, to deliberately underperform during the 2025 season to activate a performance-based exit clause in his Red Bull contract. This explosive claim, if true, could reshape the driver market and send shockwaves through the sport, with implications for Red Bull, Mercedes, and other teams vying for Verstappen’s signature ahead of the 2026 regulation changes.
Verstappen, currently contracted with Red Bull until 2028, is no stranger to speculation about his future. His contract reportedly includes a clause that allows him to leave the team if he falls outside the top four in the Drivers’ Championship by the end of June, specifically after the Austrian Grand Prix. With Verstappen sitting third in the standings with 136 points, 57 points ahead of fifth-placed Charles Leclerc, the clause seems unlikely to be triggered based on his current performance. However, whispers in the paddock suggest Wolff, known for his strategic maneuvering, may be encouraging Verstappen to subtly dial back his efforts to slip down the rankings, thereby opening a window to exit Red Bull early.
The rationale behind such a move lies in Mercedes’ long-standing interest in Verstappen. Wolff has made no secret of his admiration for the Dutch driver, particularly after Lewis Hamilton’s departure to Ferrari in 2025. While Mercedes opted to promote 18-year-old Andrea Kimi Antonelli to partner George Russell, Wolff has kept the door open for Verstappen, especially with Russell’s contract set to expire at the end of 2025. A move to Mercedes could position Verstappen at a team expected to capitalize on the 2026 regulation overhaul, given their historical dominance following major rule changes, such as the V6-hybrid era from 2014.
The idea of deliberate underperformance is not without precedent in Formula 1, though it remains controversial. Former F1 driver Ralf Schumacher recently sparked debate by suggesting Verstappen’s clash with Russell at the 2025 Spanish Grand Prix, which resulted in a penalty, might have been intentional to edge closer to activating the exit clause. Wolff himself criticized the incident, likening Verstappen’s driving to “taxi drivers in Rome or Naples,” hinting at frustration or recklessness. However, Schumacher’s theory, while speculative, has fueled conspiracy theories that Verstappen could be engineering a way out of Red Bull, especially given the team’s inconsistent RB21 car performance in 2025.
Red Bull’s struggles this season have only intensified scrutiny on Verstappen’s future. The team, once dominant, has been outpaced by McLaren’s MCL39, with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris leading the championship. Verstappen’s frustration has been evident, with reports of heated exchanges between his manager, Raymond Vermeulen, and Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko after a botched pit stop in Bahrain. Despite Christian Horner’s insistence that Verstappen remains committed, the performance clause looms large, particularly as Red Bull fights to provide a race-winning car.
Mercedes, meanwhile, is navigating its own challenges. Russell has performed admirably, sitting fourth in the championship, while Antonelli’s rookie season has shown promise. Yet, Wolff’s focus appears to extend beyond his current lineup. In 2024, he held talks with Verstappen’s camp during the summer break, though both parties agreed not to pursue a deal for 2025. Wolff’s comments at the time suggested a long-term strategy, with an eye on 2026 when new regulations could favor Mercedes’ engineering prowess. The prospect of Verstappen joining forces with a revitalized Mercedes, potentially alongside design guru Adrian Newey, who now works with Aston Martin, adds further intrigue.
Aston Martin, too, has been linked with Verstappen, with owner Lawrence Stroll reportedly prepared to offer a substantial contract. However, those rumors have cooled, and Mercedes remains the more likely destination if Verstappen were to leave Red Bull. The notion of Wolff advising underperformance is, of course, speculative and unconfirmed, but it aligns with his reputation for bold tactics. Red Bull’s Helmut Marko has downplayed concerns, stating at Monaco that Verstappen’s contract discussions are “far too early” and that the team is focused on improving the RB21 to keep their star driver satisfied.
As the 2025 season progresses toward the critical Austrian Grand Prix, all eyes will be on Verstappen’s performance and whether he maintains his top-four position. If the rumors of Wolff’s advice hold any truth, the coming races could see subtle shifts in Verstappen’s approach, potentially altering the trajectory of his career and the competitive landscape of Formula 1. For now, the paddock waits, speculating on whether this audacious strategy will come to fruition or remain another chapter in F1’s rumor mill.
