The Monaco Grand Prix, the jewel in the crown of Formula 1, is fast approaching this weekend, from May 23-25, 2025, and expectations are sky-high. However, a series of unexpected details have shaken the paddock, generating a whirlwind of speculation about whether this edition will be an unforgettable spectacle or total chaos. With a new two-stop rule and uncertain weather forecasts, Monaco promises to be a strategic battleground where every decision can change the course of the race. What can we expect and which team will have the edge at this circuit where qualifying is essential?
For the first time in the history of the Monaco Grand Prix, the FIA has introduced a rule requiring drivers to make at least two pit stops during the 78-lap race, using at least three sets of tyres. This measure, designed to break the monotony of the one-stop strategies that have dominated in recent years, seeks to inject excitement and variability into a circuit where overtaking is almost impossible. According to Sky Sports’ F1 strategy expert Bernie Collins, this rule could revolutionise racing as teams will have to rethink their tactics from scratch with no historical data to refer to.
The rule requires drivers to use at least two different slick tyre compounds (usually medium and hard) in dry conditions, adding a layer of complexity. However, the possibility of red flags or safety cars, which are common in Monaco, could throw a wrench into the works. As Collins explained, a first-lap red flag, like the one for Sergio Perez and Kevin Magnussen’s crash in 2024, could allow tyre changes to be counted as a stop, reducing the need for green-flag pit stops. This opens the door to unpredictable and risky strategies, where one bold move could catapult a driver from the back of the grid to the top.
Weather forecasts add another explosive ingredient to the mix. The weekend in Monte Carlo is expected to be largely dry, with temperatures around 22°C, but there is a 50% chance of rain during qualifying on Saturday. A wet qualifying session on the narrow streets of Monaco can be absolute chaos, with drivers struggling to find grip on a circuit where the slightest mistake ends up in the barriers. Charles Leclerc, the local hero who broke Red Bull’s 2024 streak, expressed concern about his Ferrari’s weaknesses at this circuit but also saw an opportunity if the rain shuffled the cards.
In case of rain, the two-stop rule will still apply, which further complicates strategic decisions. McLaren and Ferrari, teams with strong pitstop performances, could benefit from the speed of their pit stops, while Mercedes, according to George Russell, could suffer due to a lack of race pace compared to their qualifying speed.
With qualifying historically the deciding factor in Monaco, teams such as Red Bull and McLaren, led by Max Verstappen and Lando Norris, are the favourites. Reigning champion Verstappen believes the new rule will “spice up” the racing, while Norris, just 13 points behind team-mate Oscar Piastri in the championship, is confident of McLaren’s strength on the technical circuits. However, Ferrari, with its dominance in pit stops and Leclerc’s drive to shine on home soil, cannot be ruled out.
Meanwhile, mid-table teams such as Williams and Alpine see the new rule as an opportunity to surprise. Carlos Sainz and Pierre Gasly have both pointed out that the extra stops could allow for strategic moves that would benefit drivers who would not start on the front rows.
The 2025 Monaco Grand Prix is shaping up to be a game-changer. The combination of a groundbreaking rule and the threat of rain could turn a traditionally predictable race into a strategic thriller. Will it be a logistical disaster or an unforgettable spectacle? We won’t know until the chequered flag falls on Sunday. Follow the action live on Sky Sports F1 and don’t miss the drama on the streets of Monte Carlo.
